Everything changes now. One win, and the possibility of lifting the AFCON trophy hits you. One loss, and the dream of becoming continental champions is shattered. The knockout stages of AFCON 2025 are here, and there is no room for mistakes. The group stage was just the prologue — the phase in football where everything can be tested, and even the coaches’ philosophies are still negotiable. But from here on, everything gets serious. From the round of 16 to the final, it’s different, there are no second chances.

In this piece, Elegbete TV Sports breaks down the Round of 16 matchups of AFCON 2025, where the real business begins.

Senegal v Sudan — A Battle of Class and Narrative

This is one of the Round of 16 narratives that writes itself. Senegal, one of the favorites up against Sudan,who are rare outsiders arriving in the knockout stage against all expectations.

Senegal progressed to this stage by finishing top of Group D with seven points. They secured two wins and one draw: a commanding 3-0 victory over Botswana in their opening game, a 1-1 draw against DR Congo, and another resounding 3-0 win against Benin Republic.

Seven goals scored and just one conceded in the group stage. That is top-class performance.

For Sudan, you would not be entirely wrong to say they have been a bit fortunate to reach this stage. They qualified as one of the best third-placed teams. They lost their matches against Algeria and Burkina Faso, leaving them with just one win, against Equatorial Guinea. That win came from an own goal, meaning Sudan are yet to score an official goal themselves in the tournament. So calling their progress lucky is not entirely off the mark.

Facing Senegal, the difference in class is clear. Senegal will likely be too strong for them to handle. But that is the beauty of knockout football; there is no second chance. Imagine Sudan scoring early and holding on with a tight defense until the end; it would be a shocking, dramatic scene.

All that said, Senegal have the quality, experience, and depth to see off this Sudan side comfortably when the two meet on Saturday evening.

Mali vs Tunisia — Time to Recalibrate or Exit

For both teams, it is time to adjust or get out. Unfortunately, only one will have the chance to stay.

Neither team was particularly convincing in the group stages.

Mali finished second in their group, drawing all three games, scoring two and conceding two.

Tunisia were slightly better: a 3-1 win over Uganda, a 3-2 loss against Nigeria, and a 1-1 draw with Tanzania in their final group game.

This is a tie that could go either way. Mali’s energetic midfield could prove decisive, giving them a potential edge. For Tunisia, their strength lies in their attack, they haven’t struggled to score, just like Mali.

Overall, the game is open. Whoever wants it more, and seizes their opportunities, will take it. The balance is delicate, and this tie truly belongs to no one yet.

Morocco v Tanzania — Expectation Meets Historical First

Morocco enter as one of the favourites to go deep, not only because they are hosts, but because of the momentum they carry in the way they play. The last time Morocco lost a game was in 2023, which underlines just how strong they are as a team.

Wins against Comoros and Zambia, and a draw against Mali, saw them top their group, with six goals scored and only one conceded.

Tanzania are the story of this tournament so far, qualifying for the knockout stages for the first time in their history and squeezing through on goals scored despite not winning a single group game. Draws against Tunisia and Uganda, and a loss against Nigeria, were enough. Their story feels like a fairytale so far, and from here on, they can only gain. There is no pressure on them to deliver, and they truly have nothing to lose.

Morocco, backed by the home crowd and fuelled by the energy inside the stadium, alongside the quality of football they will put on display on Sunday evening, may simply be too much for Tanzania to handle.

South Africa v Cameroon — Brothers in Balance

Cameroon and South Africa will clash in the last 16 of the Africa Cup of Nations in Morocco on Sunday, marking the 10th meeting between the two countries.

Interestingly, South Africa’s head coach, Hugo Broos, was the man who led Cameroon to AFCON glory in 2017, the last time they won the tournament.

Both sides finished second in their groups.

For South Africa, two wins against Angola and Zimbabwe, and a loss against Egypt saw them score five goals and concede four.

For Cameroon, wins against Gabon and Mozambique and a draw against Ivory Coast saw them score four goals in the group stage and concede two.

This tie feels symmetrical, two teams with history, identity, and a similar profile.

This might not be a high-scoring game, but it promises to be intense.

Egypt v Benin Republic —  A Moment to Step Up or Fade Back

Egypt picked up seven points in their group, though it is interesting that they scored just three goals. A 2–1 win over Zimbabwe, a 1–0 win over South Africa, and a goalless draw against Angola were enough to see them through.

For Benin Republic, only one win, a 1–0 victory over Botswana, was enough to qualify them as one of the best third placed teams, despite defeats to DR Congo and Senegal.

Egypt carries enormous weight with them. They have a storied history of seven AFCON titles, but the last time they lifted the trophy was in 2010. That was 16 years ago, and they will be desperate to do it again.

For Mohamed Salah in particular, this tournament means everything. For all he has achieved at club level, he still craves AFCON glory with his nation. He came agonisingly close at the 2021 AFCON, losing the final to his then teammate, Sadio Mané.

Benin Republic, meanwhile, have already exceeded expectations just by reaching this stage, the round of 16. They have nothing to lose and will embrace the underdog role, which is exactly why Egypt must be careful.

Nigeria v Mozambique — Talent vs. Belief

Nigeria have a plethora of talent in their team, while Mozambique have belief.

Nigeria’s quality was evident in the group stage, as they were one of only two teams to win all three of their games.

A 2–1 win over Tanzania, a 3–2 win over Tunisia, and a 3–1 win over Uganda saw Nigeria progress to this stage, showing their star power in all three matches.

Eight goals scored by six different goalscorers show that this team can score from any position. They have had defenders, midfielders, and attackers all on the scoresheet, which highlights how complete they are as a unit.

Mozambique enter as the quintessential underdogs. This is their first knockout stage appearance in years. A 40 year wait for a win ended, and now they face one of West Africa’s powerhouses.

They qualified as one of the best third placed teams. They lost to Ivory Coast and Cameroon but defeated Gabon, something many would not have predicted. What stands out is how they troubled both Ivory Coast and Cameroon, which means Nigeria must be wary and avoid any hint of complacency when they meet on Monday evening.

It promises to be a fascinating contest.

Algeria v DR Congo — The Tactical Slugfest

If there is a match that feels genuinely open on paper, it is this one. Algeria were one of the most efficient sides in the group stage, clinical, composed, and confident in their identity. DR Congo, meanwhile, also matched that performance with two wins and a draw. Neither side has tasted defeat yet.

Alongside Nigeria, Algeria won all three of their group games. Victories over Burkina Faso, Equatorial Guinea, and Sudan, with seven goals scored and just one conceded, have brought them to this stage.

They look lethal, and they are showing that they can win the competition, even though before the start of the tournament, they were not among the favourites.

DR Congo, for their part, have shown that their recent rise in African football is no fluke. Managed by Sébastien Desabre, they have continued to impress.

They finished second in their group behind Senegal on goal difference, with wins over Benin and Botswana and a draw against the heavyweights Senegal.

This promises to be a wild battle of tactics, finesse, and strength. It may well be decided on penalties, but one way or another, a winner will emerge.

Ivory Coast v Burkina Faso — Western Africa’s Thorny Derby

From the fixture alone, you can already sense the level of fierceness, fire, passion, energy, and physicality it will carry.

Ivory Coast finished top of their group, showing class and mettle with wins over Mozambique and Gabon, and a draw against Cameroon. They scored five goals and conceded three. The most impressive part of their campaign was how they turned a 2–0 deficit against Gabon into a 3–2 victory in their final group game.

Burkina Faso finished second in their group with wins against Sudan and Equatorial Guinea, scoring four and conceding two.

This one is also wide open, but it will be tough.

The Round of 16 isn’t just the start of the second half of this tournament, but it’s where the road to glory starts being paved in real terms. Teams will stop trying to be pretty and start trying to be effective, and some will crack under it while others will glow.

Now is where the music starts and the dancers either step up or step off.